Recent forecasts from the IMF shed light on the global economic landscape. The IMF has revised the UK's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, highlighting a positive outlook. By 2025, UK services exports are set to exceed £500bn, marking a significant milestone representing a fifth of the UK's GDP. Notably, finance, insurance and other business services will drive nearly two-thirds of this growth, encompassing sectors like computer programming, consultancy, architecture, and engineering. The evolution of the UK's energy and transport infrastructure towards greener practices, such as wind generation reaching 95 TWh, demonstrates a commitment to sustainability and resilience, pivotal for mitigating external shocks. Despite shifts in economic and defence dynamics in Europe presenting new challenges, this transformation fosters innovation and opportunities for businesses to thrive amid change.
Looking ahead, the North West of England is poised for modest economic growth in 2025 despite a challenging global landscape, positioning itself as a strong-performing region within the UK. However, sectors like manufacturing, retail, and IT face challenges due to escalating costs and global uncertainties. To achieve a 2% annual growth rate by 2035, strategic focus on key areas, termed as "supercharged sectors”- place shaping, attracting foreign investment, culture and sport, technology and AI, net zero and green skills are crucial for driving economic prosperity in the North West region.
Economic growth in the North West is forecasted to be positive, potentially surpassing other UK regions. Forecasts indicate significant growth for the North West, positioning it as a top-performing region with an estimated 5-year growth of nearly 30%. The industrial and logistics sector is expected to remain robust, driven by ongoing demand for quality warehouse space. Sectors like manufacturing, retail, and IT may encounter obstacles due to increased costs and global supply chain disruptions, leading to slower growth.
The housing market in the North West is projected to thrive, with affordability and enhanced connectivity likely to drive price increases.
The economic landscape is evolving, presenting opportunities for innovation and growth across a variety of industry sectors. Guernsey, as an internationally recognised centre for fund domiciliation and investment management, is strategically positioned to support the current economic conditions. Its flexibility, specialism, and expert practitioners supported by a pragmatic and flexible regulatory environment have proven of great interest to the law firms visited on the Manchester Private Wealth and Fund Roadshows. I have attended TheCityUK, Corporate Financial, PE Reviews on behalf of Guernsey Finance in Manchester and discussed the breadth of opportunities for Guernsey. Its specialised workforce, regulatory adaptability, and industry-focused environment have garnered interest from Manchester-based firms, with promising prospects for those engaging with Guernsey's financial services sector.
